
MOSCOW — Rumors about a banking crisis are over-exaggerated, analysts with Russian major banks said Thursday.
Some Russian media said that increasing distrust on the inter-bank loan market could lead to serious consequences and provoke a new banking crisis. It was argued that inter-bank loan rates were at a high level because large banks were afraid of lending to banks and this distrust made the market tense.
But experts said there were no reasons for a new banking crisis because interest rates went up in late June and early July solely due to seasonal factors and the situation on the foreign exchange market.
Olga Kharlova, an inter-bank analyst from Rosevrobank, said suggestions that there would be a new banking crisis were over-exaggerated and without foundation.
"First-tier banks are, indeed, unwilling to open credit limits for smaller banks because last year's banking crisis, which caused a run on household deposits, is not yet over. But I would not speak about any new crisis," she said.
In addition, large banks are gradually restoring their operations with second-tier operators, she added.
Karen Patrikeyev, a dealer with Kredit-Moskva Bank, said banks at different levels conduct as few mutual transactions as possible but this situation does not suggest an imminent crisis.
On the contrary, the dealer said that few mutual transactions enabled large banks to reduce their credit risks.
Today inter-bank loans rates have fallen to 1.5-2% per annum compared with 8-10% late last week and early this week.
Patrikeyev said interest rates were high because banks had to make quarterly payments in rubles. But in late June, the dollar's gains on the foreign exchange market prompted banks to keep money in foreign currency and increased demand for rubles.
The Central Bank of Russia held repo auctions (the sale of ruble funds and their subsequent repurchase) to compensate for the ruble shortage. But now the demand for rubles has fallen sharply, the analyst said.
The need for rubles is due to seasonal factors and has no relation to problems in the banking sector, chief economist of Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova said.
According to her, last year's banking crisis segmented the banking community and its liquidity. Today the banking sector is experiencing the implications of last year's crisis and interest rates are most likely to be volatile but there are not reasons to worry, the Alfa-bank chief economist said.