Chechen effort needs political goals

Issue Number: 
37
Author: 
Alexander Golts
Published: 
1999-11-08


It's alarming that Russian generals, euphoric over their claimed success in Chechnya, don't recall statements they made a half-year ago when they slammed NATO's operation in Yugoslavia.

Air strikes and massive artillery shelling proved effective in the Chechen operation's first stage when the aim was to create a security zone around the breakaway republic. It's time for the top brass to acknowledge that the situation has changed radically since Russian troops crossed the Terek River and, meeting almost no resistance, began tightening the noose around the Chechen capital, Grozny.

Russia's generals desperately need a victory in order to wipe out the shame of the previous war. "No cessation and no talks with the separatists!" has become a mantra for these men. In a bid to achieve their aim, they are continuing to keep direct contacts with the enemy to a minimum.

However, in seeking to wipe out "terrorists," they have indiscriminately bombed all military formations in the republic -- whether Shamil Basayev's and Khattab's men, or Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov's national guards.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has reiterated that the Chechen problem can only be resolved through political means. The trouble is that federal authorities do not want to talk with anybody in Chechnya.

The generals' decisiveness contrasts with the indecision of Russia's civilian authorities. The government appeared willing to speak with Chechnya's parliament deputies but soon abandoned the idea. It appointed Nikolai Koshman as Russia's empowered envoy to Chechnya but didn't give him any powers.

The absence of a political strategy as explicit as the military one jeopardizes the entire undertaking. Although the military operation appears to be going successfully, the army has not yet defeated the Chechen force of 30,000-40,000 men. The federal force has only battled with the Chechen army's vanguard detachments and could well be heading toward a Chechen trap.

It's unlikely that the federal force will manage to encircle Grozny and starve the Chechens out. As international pressure builds, the Kremlin will pressure the military to speed the operation by using the same tactics of massive air strikes and shelling. However, the destruction of Chechen apartment blocks will bring public protests, and the military will have to resort to street fighting and inevitable heavy losses.

The worst scenario would come if Chechen militants leave Grozny in order to deliver a blow from behind. It would be difficult to repel rebel forces moving in from Ingushetia or Dagestan. The 90,000-strong federal army group deployed in the North Caucasus is the largest the country can amass. There are no reserves ready to combat a sudden incursion into Russia.

Russia obviously needs military dialogue with the Chechen leaders. At the least, Russia must try to get a section of Chechnya's armed forces taken out of the picture while federal troops destroy the Basayev and Khattab formations.

At the current rate, even if federal troops manage to crush organized Chechen resistance and kill Basayev and Khattab, peace won't be established in the breakaway republic. Moscow needs an understanding with the Chechens. Air strikes and bombing are not the path toward building up confidence.

With this in mind, Russian authorities are trying to foster relatively normal living conditions in areas controlled by federal troops - they reopen schools and hospitals, restore infrastructure, and pay wages and pensions. Nonetheless, these efforts will bring about nothing unless Moscow adopts a sound approach toward Chechnya. No military strategy, however successful, can substitute for rational policy.

Search