On the eve of every Russian parliamentary election, questions arise about the influence of the armed forces on the political scene.

Col. Gen. Vasily Volkov, a member of the Central Election Committee, told Defense Ministry publication Krasnaya Zvezda that soldiers and their dependents number 10 million voters - a considerable portion of the electorate.

He said that military personnel are less susceptible to propaganda than other voters (by law, political propaganda is forbidden among active-duty soldiers and officers), and more influenced by their commanders.

Military people, he said, are disciplined and will definitely use the chance to vote.

All this makes the military a juicy morsel for political strategists. Predictably, the names of acclaimed military commanders appear in nearly all election slates. Boris Gromov, commander of the 40th Army (which fought in Afghanistan), adorns the slate of the Fatherland-All Russia bloc, and former Defense Minister Igor Rodionov decorates the list of the Communist Party.

Numerous senior officers are members of the radical and nationalistic Movement to Support the Army, and several, including Col. Gen. Vorobyev and retired Col. Yushenkov, have joined the ranks of the liberals. In all, 77 men in uniform are running for seats in the State Duma lower house of parliament.

The truth, however, is that the military doesn't necessarily vote for military candidates. It's worth recalling that the present Duma contains no more than 20 out of the 100 military candidates promoted in 1996 by then Defense Minister Pavel Grachev.

The military electorate is apparently not as consolidated as it may appear, and there is no reason to expect them to become more consolidated now.

The military is poised to play a key role in the upcoming State Duma and presidential elections, but not due to its voting preferences. It doesn't take much insight to see that the elections will largely depend on the outcome of the Chechen campaign. The popularity of pro-Kremlin figures, including Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, depends directly on the progress in subduing the breakaway republic with minimal casualties among Russian soldiers.

In the first stage, as Russian troops advanced into Chechnya's northern plains while meeting little resistance, military and political aims appeared to coincide. Now, as the campaign acquires a protracted character and it becomes clear that Chechen resistance cannot be crushed solely by force of arms, contradictions have emerged between the top brass and political officials. Seeking the victory that would boost their careers, the generals don't want talks with the Chechens.

Expressing support for Putin and his course, the military is hinting that its support could fade away should the prime minister cancel its carte blanche in Chechnya. In an interview with TV program Zerkalo, Maj. Gen. Vladimir Shamanov said, "Putin is a man whom many people would support, including myself." However, asked what the military would do should orders be issued to back off and begin negotiations, Shamanov replied: "I would tear my shoulder straps off and look for a civilian job. I would not serve in such an army."

"I am firmly convinced there will be no order to back off," Deputy head of the General Headquarters Valery Manilov said.

Meanwhile, disagreement is obviously gaining momentum between generals from General Headquarters chief Anatoly Kvashnin's camp and Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev, whose stance is much less radical. The recent, unprecedented joint statement of Sergeyev and Kvashnin denying rumors about the existence of such disagreements only indicates the seriousness of the situation.

For the first time in Russia's democratic history, the military has dared advise the president and prime minister on what to do. Moreover, the political leadership appears compliant. In his most recent statements, Putin admitted the possibility of storming the Chechen capital, Grozny. It's worth recalling that, only two weeks ago, the prime minister dismissed such a scenario as totally unacceptable.

The top brass doesn't even need to win Duma seats. With their direct connection to the country's leaders, all they have to do is lobby.