A colonel general in camouflage thanked the soldiers who have just taken Shatoi, the last town in the hands of Chechen rebels. He gave paratroopers a Russian flag to hoist atop a transmission tower somehow still miraculously standing.

The general then informed journalists that organized armed resistance in Chechnya was over. As for the small rebel groups "still running around in the mountains," the general said they posed no serious threat.

This whole scene, recently shown on all the country's TV channels had a sense of deja vu about it – we've seen it before. In the summer of 1995, another colonel general, though by the name of Anatoly Kvashnin rather than Gennady Troshev, the current hero, also raised the Russian flag over Shatoi, described the military situation in exactly the same words and dismissed the "rebels running around in the mountains" in the same casual way.

A year later, in August 1996, those same rebels came down from the mountains and took the Chechen capital, Grozny. Russian forces, worn down by partisan war, weren't able to resist the attack.

This time around, the country didn't even have to wait a year to learn the real value of the generals' statements. At the end of February, one after the other, the generals announced that armed resistance had been liquidated. Deputy commander of the joint forces headquarters Maj. Gen. Vadim Timchenko even declared that the military phase of the anti-terrorist operation would be over by March 8.

Troop withdrawal had already begun, a regiment from the Kantemirov division returned from Chechnya. But all this was suddenly turned on its head when several dozen special forces (OMON) police officers were killed in Grozny.

This is significant not just because the column of vehicles carrying the OMON troops was ambushed in a region supposed to be liberated from rebels. Despite numerous checks by federal forces, the rebels managed to set up reinforced firing points and even mine the areas around them.

Also significant is that the OMON troops fought for several hours while waiting for reinforcements. All of this took place only a few kilometers away from federal joint forces headquarters. This can mean only one thing – the federal forces don't have the numbers to keep all of Chechnya under control.

This is the biggest problem from a military point of view. The generals, who claim to have learned the lessons of the first Chechen war, obviously haven't understood the main thing – once organized Chechen resistance is broken, the rebels step in to take full strategic initiative.

Federal forces will now find it difficult to identify where the enemy is and react in time by moving its troops into place. The Chechens, having split into small groups "running around the mountains," could turn up anywhere in Chechnya. This change in the situation robs the federal forces of what has been their great advantage so far – aviation and artillery.

The federal command will now have to station small numbers of troops in every single town – thus reducing the effectiveness of their forces. Communications, which have always been the Russian forces' Achilles heel, will be a vital factor. Russian forces have only now just begun to be equipped with new radio communication centers.

In this situation, it is unclear how the command intends to keep its promise about troop withdrawals. Once the main group is withdrawn, federal forces in Chechnya will comprise an 18,000-strong motorized infantry division, two Interior Ministry troops divisions and OMON troops. This, it seems, won't be enough.

The scenario could well end up following that of the first Chechen war with army and police divisions holed up in their positions, giving rebel groups a free hand.

It is impossible to win a partisan war through military might alone. This kind of war will end only when the civilian population is forced to agree with Moscow and stop supporting the separatists. This won't happen anytime soon. Quite probably, the "tough cleansing" promised by the federal forces will deteriorate into acts of revenge for fellow soldiers killed in Chechnya, and that will only end up swelling the ranks of the rebels.

(Alexander Golts is a columnist for the weekly Itogi magazine.)