Under pressure from Kemerovo Governor Aman Tuleyev's threats of a "new railway war" - coal miners blockading the Trans-Siberian Railroad - the Russian government has begun to make promises to the country's miners once again.

Tuleyev, informal leader of the miners' movement, told Interfax on June 29, "Unless the mining industry's situation is improved within a month, new social outbursts and rail wars will become inevitable in the mining regions."

Government officials said the World Bank would disburse a new coal loan to Russia in the next two weeks, and First Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Aksyonenko promised the government would funnel at least 14 billion rubles into the coal industry by the end of the year.

That would be even more than the 12 billion rubles former Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov promised in February at the All-Russian Congress of Coal Miners.

While the World Bank has yet to provide the $400 million it promised, 5.8 billion rubles allocated for miners in the federal budget have already been doled out.

Speaking at a meeting of the Russian Coal Industry Trade Union on July 6, Aksyonenko promised that wage arrears in the coal industry, currently totaling 3 billion rubles, would be paid off during the next two years. By the end of this year, he said, the government would make monthly allocations of 1.2 billion rubles to support the coal industry. A total of 7.2 billion rubles would be disbursed by year's end.

Aksyonenko also made waves by saying the government plans to submit a draft amendment to this year's budget law to the State Duma (lower house of Parliament) that would increase the spending plan for the coal industry by 7 billion rubles. That cash would be "taken from additional sources," Aksyonenko said, describing them as related to taxation, increased coal production, deliveries and exports.

But analysts say Aksyonenko's promises are hardly realistic since unlike other raw materials industries, coal mining is experiencing increasing losses.

Only a sweeping restructuring would make the industry profitable. Hopelessly inefficient mines must be closed, and support provided for promising ones. Such reform requires financing, and the only realistic source of money is the World Bank's program of "coal loans."

But the industry remains locked in a vicious circle. The World Bank will not give its loans unless Russia takes tangible measures to restructure its coal enterprises. Such measures, however, need money.

According to Fuel and Energy Minister Viktor Kalyuzhny, the government submitted all the necessary documents for a coal loan to the World Bank on June 5. Marina Vasilyeva, spokeswoman for the World Bank's Moscow office, says the documents are now being thoroughly considered. If all questions are resolved by the end of this week, the issue will be raised at the bank's board meeting on July 20. But that is an optimistic scenario.

Tuleyev, meanwhile, continues to abide by his rigid strategy of confrontation. On July 7, he rejected an award - the Honor Order - that President Boris Yeltsin awarded him.

"I cannot agree to the policies that have led to the deterioration of the quality of life for the absolute majority of Russians," Tuleyev said.

With a view to forthcoming parliamentary elections this year, it is much more beneficial to be a miners' opposition leader than the president's loyal regional manager. The Cabinet's days are already numbered and it will hardly manage to provide anything more than comforting promises.

Tuleyev's popularity, meanwhile, keeps growing. Some say his stand might even force the government to give miners the money it promised them.