The actions of the Bush administration – along with moves by the "Oracle of Finance" Alan Greenspan – look like a huge gamble on the future of the American people. They are drastic measures designed to keep the economy going. Meanwhile, in Russia, the government continues its second year of wasting away economic windfalls and squandering opportunities unlikely to be seen again for decades.

Even to a diehard capitalist like myself, the U.S. measures do seem like a bit of overkill. A bit of slowing of growth and cooling off of "irrational exuberance" in the equity markets wouldn't really be so bad, would it?

And while President George W. Bush talks of putting more money in the hands of consumers to boost their confidence and kick them into spending more, one has to wonder whether encouraging individuals to go into greater debt while the nation pays off its own is a prudent policy. It is becoming common in U.S. households to have fully mortgaged luxurious lifestyles with relatively no job security.

But the greatest gamble that Greenspan is taking has nothing to do with taxes (the Federal Reserve controls monetary policy primarily through discount rates). The story goes that he plays these economic games lying in the bathtub for hours in the morning, soothing his bad back. Like Einstein's Theory of Relativity, many find the whole thing rather credible and interesting, but no one can figure out the math. In the end, some of the smartest people in the world, from Tokyo to New York, just take his word as diktat, and few question his authority or judgment.

His economics is akin to a capital-markets version of that trusty Theory of Relativity (I have spent more than 18 years studying it and I still can't say I know what the heck Albert was talking about.) Greenspan's version is a gamble on the future of a nation on the Theory of Productivity. Bush's policy is based on a 10-year weather forecast.

But herein the usual reference to Russia that I feel compelled to make in my column. Despite some administrative reform – taxes, customs, political stability, vertical of power, etc. – Russia seems a hundred years behind in economic policy if one takes a look at what is happening in the United States. Americans are playing Russian roulette while Russians are taking a tan.

I am certainly not capable of judging the wisdom or effectiveness of Greenspan's game plan. But with all their riches and good life, U.S. central bankers and, indeed, politicians are still willing to take huge risks to harvest rewards for their people. All we see in Russia is a stagnation of ideas while billions of dollars are washed offshore and the domestic economy and millions of people languish.

Right or wrong, the effects of U.S. policy impact the lives of the American people almost immediately – discount rates go down, markets go up, mortgages change, financing rates are cut, housing markets react and so on. In Russia, no matter what the government does, the lot of the people remains unchanged. Despite all the reforms in the past year, there has been almost no change in the daily lives of ordinary people. And with the effects of the 1998 ruble devaluation and higher oil prices about to come to an end, things are likely to get worse.

But back to the great gamble on productivity. We do not have time to go into the gory details of this new theory, and we will let enlightened business publications such as the Wall Street Journal deal with it. But just like the Theory of Relativity, there is some common sense underlying the Theory of Productivity. Greenspan, even at 70 and with his weak spine, has guts of steel, one must acknowledge. His theory is that all those computers, high-tech devices, enterprise software and e-commerce tools that companies have been spending billions on will finally start working. With cheaper, mobile-computing and communication devices that can be operated even by novices (seen those DHL drivers carrying "Beam-me-up-Scottie"-type gizmos?), millions of American workers will be able to improve their efficiency and productivity by many times. With that will come higher earnings, greater consumer confidence and the partying shall go on.

Such will be the impact on overall productivity, and so sure are the chances that the United States will be able to pay off all of its national debt, that Greenspan is able to cut interest rates and support tax relief. Even with lower taxes, the gamble goes, the government will have enough for Social Security, education reform and putting more cops on the street (though giving handguns to every kid would make law enforcement easier according to their theory).

It is impossible to say if there is enough real mathematics behind the new U.S. budget and this whole theory, especially from a man who has trouble adding single-digit figures (Bush, not Greenspan). But it is a worthwhile gamble on the future of the New Economy. For a long time now, it has been accepted that knowledge and information are the driving forces behind the economy and that information technology is going to have a great impact on the way we work and produce (and reproduce). Time will tell whether the gamble will pay off, but the U.S. budget and policies are futurally oriented and risk-takers always reap the rewards.

But, in Russia, no one is even bothering to take any risks – and the future remains as bleak and predictable as ever. The problem is not just with the government. The whole corporate sector – with the exception of some small- and medium-sized enterprises – still works in the ways of the Soviet Union, despite the fancy marble floors and new office buildings. Workers at the nation's largest (and virtually monopolistic) bank, Sberbank, sit behind their mahogany desks and bulletproof glass and scream and shout at customers. The industrial sector and the oil and gas industry have made trivial investments in increasing productivity, while billions from exports flow offshore and are used by Swiss banks to improve operating standards. While its own economy declines, Russia is helping to fund the march of many small island and mountain economies toward greater productivity.

There are no reliable statistics on this, but the Internet bandwidths, the mobile phones bought on company accounts and the mobile-computing capabilities purchased by rich Russian corporations for their employees are largely being put to personal use. Some 99 percent of SMS messaging in Moscow is said to be of a personal nature.

My own staff spends hours typing personal SMS messages and e-mails but would never think of writing down a few work-related thoughts. My e-mail in the United States buzzes at 2 a.m. when a designer's coffee mug in Moscow turns up missing. But just try to get that same designer to send a work-related message! People sitting in adjoining rooms are beginning to quarrel or carry on romances over e-mails. Employees in high-tech companies with Wall Street salaries in Moscow gather in stairwells for hours each day to smoke and talk everything but business.

While the U.S. gamble just might pay off (although I am not betting my house on it), Russian businesses are squandering another great opportunity. Even though money is being spent wildly on information technology, it is not improving the nation's productivity in any positive way. The government's tired and half-hearted ways do not even deserve a mention.

Russian boys have all the new toys, as do their girlfriends, and the only games the Russian government is obsessed with is Star Wars. I wish they would play some good economic games and take some risks because that is where the rewards are.